Lakeville, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXUS63 KMPX 041106
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
606 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today with a mostly dry cold frontal passage expected.
  A stray shower or two is possible but precipitation chances
  are below 20%.

- Cooler temperatures mid-week behind the front with
  frost/freeze concerns each morning until a late week warm up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Temperatures have remained relatively warm overnight as steady
southwesterly winds and incoming cloud cover have limited
radiational cooling. In fact, some areas in north-central MN are
still in the lower 60s at 1:30 AM! Lows across our area will drop
into the mid 40s to lower 50s by sunrise. Southwesterly winds
increase this morning gusting to 20-25 MPH as a strong LLJ moves
overhead. This LLJ is associated with a strong mid-level wave over
Ontario, the latter of which will move well to our northeast.
However, a strong, trailing cold front (currently located over
northern MN) will push through our CWA during the first half of
today. The aforementioned cloud cover, as well as some scattered
showers, over the northern half of MN is in response to this cold
front. This activity will also travel southeast through our CWA,
creating quite a few clouds today. A stray shower or two may be
possible for central MN and into WI. But, the low-levels of our
atmosphere are very dry (evidenced by KMPX`s 00z ROAB). Once the
front passes, winds will switch to northwesterly and increase in
speed with gusts of 30-35 MPH across MN through this afternoon. High
temperatures today will be dependent on how much heating can occur
prior to the frontal passage. Central MN is only forecast to reach
the mid to upper 50s while areas south and east should see mid to
upper 60s.

Winds will gradually slow this evening while as the cooler airmass
settles over the Upper Midwest. This airmass will remain with us
through mid-week as northwesterly flow persists causing temperatures
to be below normal. Frost/freeze concerns return tonight through
Wednesday night as overnight lows will fall to at least the mid 30s.
Tuesday night currently looks like the coldest where nearly all of
our area (excluding maybe the Twin Cities heat island) is forecast
to drop below 32F. Daytime highs will only reach the upper 40s to
mid 50s and winds could be breezy during the day if efficient
boundary layer mixing occurs. Thus, more of early April spring-time
weather than early May.

Forecast models do show temperatures slowly trending upwards the
latter half of this week as upper-level ridging over the western
CONUS tries to push east. Though, general northwesterly upper-level
flow will continue to persist through at least this weekend. This
means that precipitation chances should remain low through the end
of the period given the incoming dry, continental air from Canada.
Thursday looks like the only exception as forecast models show a
compact shortwave embedded within the larger upper-level low over
the Hudson Bay swing south into the Upper Midwest. Currently, PoPs
are 20-30% over eastern MN and WI Thursday afternoon; but PoPs will
probably need to be increased given the good agreement of QPF
occurring between the GEFS and EPS members. Not expecting any
significant precipitation. Just one of those high PoP-low QPF type
of events. Highs return to the 60s next weekend with a few shots at
70s possible early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Mid to high clouds are moving
overhead from the northwest with the front. A broken diurnal
cumulus field near 8000 feet should develop by early this
afternoon, lasting through this evening, before lifting.
SW winds are quickly transitioning to W/NW, with gusts
approaching 20 knots. LLWS of 45-50 knots is expected only for
another hour or two. A cold front will then pass through,
turning winds to northwesterly for the remainder of the period.
Winds will increase after the front, reaching 15-20 knots
sustained with gusts of 25-30 knots. Winds slow to 5-10 knots
during Monday evening.

KMSP...Maintained west-southwesterly LLWS of 50 knots from
through 13z this morning. NW winds will reach 15-20 knots with
gusts of 25-30 knots this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...PV